| Ticker | GuruFocus Next Earn Date | GuruFocus Ex-Dividend Date | GuruFocus Ex-Dividend Amount | Yahoo Ex-Dividend Date | Best Ex-Dividend Date | Future Ex-Dividend Date | Flag |
| KO | 2018-07-26 | 2018-06-14 | $0.39 | 2017-06-13 | 2018-06-14 | 2018-06-14 | |
| MO | 2018-07-27 | 2018-06-14 | $0.70 | 2017-06-13 | 2018-06-14 | 2018-06-14 | |
| MRK | 2018-07-27 | 2018-06-14 | $0.48 | 2017-06-13 | 2018-06-14 | 2018-06-14 | |
| SPY | -- | -- | -- | 2017-06-16 | 2018-06-16 | 2018-06-16 | **** |
| XLY | -- | -- | -- | 2017-06-16 | 2018-06-16 | 2018-06-16 | **** |
| XLP | -- | -- | -- | 2017-06-16 | 2018-06-16 | 2018-06-16 | **** |
| XLE | -- | -- | -- | 2017-06-16 | 2018-06-16 | 2018-06-16 | **** |
| XLF | -- | -- | -- | 2017-06-16 | 2018-06-16 | 2018-06-16 | **** |
| XLV | -- | -- | -- | 2017-06-16 | 2018-06-16 | 2018-06-16 | **** |
| XLI | -- | -- | -- | 2017-06-16 | 2018-06-16 | 2018-06-16 | **** |
| XLB | -- | -- | -- | 2017-06-16 | 2018-06-16 | 2018-06-16 | **** |
| XLK | -- | -- | -- | 2017-06-16 | 2018-06-16 | 2018-06-16 | **** |
| XLU | -- | -- | -- | 2017-06-16 | 2018-06-16 | 2018-06-16 | **** |
| PM | 2018-07-20 | 2018-06-21 | $1.14 | 2017-06-21 | 2018-06-21 | 2018-06-21 | |
| NUE | 2018-07-20 | 2018-06-28 | $0.38 | 2017-06-28 | 2018-06-28 | 2018-06-28 |
Showing posts with label Commentary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Commentary. Show all posts
Monday, June 11, 2018
Upcoming Dividend Events...
...for stocks and ETFs that I watch:
Monday, November 20, 2017
Intro to RSI(2)/C Strategy
I'm starting a new strategy buying calls, based on the "RSI(2) < 10" trigger. The process will be:
For example, MRK is currently at an RSI(2) of 8.8. I didn't see a good covered call to write on it in a near-term weekly expiration, so I looked at the possible calls on the 2018-01-19 expiration date:
So, just based on the higher aROI values, I'd rule out the $45, $47.50, $52.50, and $55 strikes. But the needed runup for strikes $57.50, $60, and $62.5 would rule them out. That would leave me with the $50 strike. However, that's a bit more than I'd want to invest in the strategy, so I'd pass at this time.
Having said that, I did start a position in MRK earlier today. It was one of three positions I started:
I have already set limit prices on each to sell them at their goal prices ("Limit" column above).
As an example of the "end play" on a position, here is a paper position I started over a month ago that would expire this Friday:
If this were a real position, I would be closing it tomorrow rather than wait to see what the rest of the week holds.
- Look at RSI(2) triggers, using a universe of Dividend Champions, Dow Jones stocks, and a number of index-based ETFs.
- If any are usable as a covered call play for a near-term weekly option expiration, either a "Dividend Play" or an "RSI(2) Play", do that. Or if any are feasible for the "RSI(2)/3" strategy on a near-term weekly option, do that. Otherwise, since covered calls aren't viable, how about the opposite side -- buying the call? That is:
- Check the calls for the monthly expiration date that is 45 to 60 days out. I chose this time period because most of the closed positions resulting from RSI(2) have closed by then.
- I'm basing my position size on controlling $35,000 worth of the stock, and setting a profit goal of $1,000 (the 3% profit goal I've used on the "RSI(2)/3").
- I've created a grid that allows me to look at annual ROI of a covered call (excluding dividend, for now) versus the run-up in price needed to match that profit goal. It will basically be a trade-off between larger cost and more likely success versus smaller cost and less likely success. I would like to make a choice mechanical, but haven't gotten to that point yet. Maybe utilizing the Greeks of the options?
One disadvantage to this strategy is it starts out in negative territory, based on having to buy it near the ask price and having to settle with selling it near the bid price.
For example, MRK is currently at an RSI(2) of 8.8. I didn't see a good covered call to write on it in a near-term weekly expiration, so I looked at the possible calls on the 2018-01-19 expiration date:
| Ticker/Input Expiry: | MRK | 01-19 | |||||
| Expiry: | 01-19 | ||||||
| Price: | $54.10 | ||||||
| Earn: | 02-02 | ||||||
| Ex-Div: | 12-13 | Est | |||||
| Div: | $0.47 | *** | |||||
| Yahoo Ticker Symbols | Price/Bid | Ask | Strike | Extrinsic | aROI | Cost | Need |
| MRK | $54.10 | ||||||
| MRK180119C00045000 | $8.65 | $10.50 | $45.00 | $1.40 | 19.21% | $6,300.00 | 5.67% |
| MRK180119C00047500 | $7.70 | $8.05 | $47.50 | $1.45 | 18.84% | $4,830.00 | 5.76% |
| MRK180119C00050000 | $4.25 | $4.45 | $50.00 | $0.35 | 4.22% | $2,670.00 | 3.73% |
| MRK180119C00052500 | $2.30 | $2.43 | $52.50 | $0.83 | 9.61% | $1,458.00 | 4.61% |
| MRK180119C00055000 | $1.00 | $1.07 | $55.00 | $1.07 | 12.07% | $642.00 | 6.72% |
| MRK180119C00057500 | $0.31 | $0.36 | $57.50 | $0.36 | 4.01% | $216.00 | 10.03% |
| MRK180119C00060000 | $0.10 | $0.13 | $60.00 | $0.13 | 1.44% | $78.00 | 14.23% |
| MRK180119C00062500 | $0.03 | $0.06 | $62.50 | $0.06 | 0.66% | $36.00 | 18.72% |
So, just based on the higher aROI values, I'd rule out the $45, $47.50, $52.50, and $55 strikes. But the needed runup for strikes $57.50, $60, and $62.5 would rule them out. That would leave me with the $50 strike. However, that's a bit more than I'd want to invest in the strategy, so I'd pass at this time.
Having said that, I did start a position in MRK earlier today. It was one of three positions I started:
| Reason | Ticker | Bought | Paid | Ending | Closed | Days | P/L | C-ROI | C-aROI | Shares | Gain | Cost | Limit |
| RSI(2)/C | JNJ180119C00145000 | 2017-11-20 | $0.50 | $0.47 | -- | 1 | -$0.03 | -6.0% | -2190.0% |
300
| -$9.00 | $150.00 | $3.90 |
| RSI(2)/C | MRK180119C00057500 | 2017-11-20 | $0.33 | $0.34 | -- | 1 | $0.01 | 3.0% | 1106.1% | 600 | $6.00 | $198.00 | $2.03 |
| RSI(2)/C | TRV180119C00135000 | 2017-11-20 | $1.15 | $1.05 | -- | 1 | -$0.10 | -8.7% | -3173.9% | 200 | -$20.00 | $230.00 | $6.25 |
I have already set limit prices on each to sell them at their goal prices ("Limit" column above).
As an example of the "end play" on a position, here is a paper position I started over a month ago that would expire this Friday:
| Reason | Ticker | Bought | Paid | Ending | Closed | Days | P/L | C-ROI | C-aROI | Shares | Gain | Cost | Limit |
| RSI(2)/C | HD171124C00160000 | 2017-10-13 | $6.70 | $10.25 | -- | 39 | $3.55 | 53.0% | 495.9% | 200 | $710.00 | $1,340.00 | $11.80 |
If this were a real position, I would be closing it tomorrow rather than wait to see what the rest of the week holds.
Tuesday, October 31, 2017
CC-List Candidates
So far, the CC-List candidates haven't worked out so well. All three are currently in the red. One pattern I noticed was pullbacks on candidates that were hitting new highs, so I added a flag for that situation.
| Ticker | Price | Flag | I/O | Description of Best Call | Bid | Extr | ROI | aROI | Flag | Next Earn | Flag | Ex-Div | Flag | Yield |
| NUE | $57.98 | ITM | NUE 11/03 2017 $57.50 Call | $1.98 | $1.50 | 2.59% | 236.07% | **** | 2017-10-19 | 2017-09-28 | 2.58% | |||
| XLI | $71.78 | ITM | XLI 11/03 2017 $71.50 Call | $1.50 | $1.22 | 1.70% | 155.09% | **** | -- | 2017-12-16 | 1.60% | |||
| WBA | $65.99 | OTM | WBA 11/03 2017 $66.00 Call | $1.05 | $1.05 | 1.59% | 145.19% | **** | 2017-10-25 | 2017-11-10 | 2.26% | |||
| TGT | $59.17 | ITM | TGT 11/03 2017 $59.00 Call | $0.94 | $0.77 | 1.30% | 118.75% | **** | 2017-11-15 | 2017-11-14 | 4.03% | |||
| COP | $51.42 | OTM | COP 11/03 2017 $51.50 Call | $0.41 | $0.41 | 0.80% | 72.76% | **** | 2017-10-26 | 2017-12-01 | 2.00% | |||
| MRK | $55.18 | ITM | MRK 11/03 2017 $55.00 Call | $0.60 | $0.42 | 0.76% | 69.45% | **** | 2017-10-27 | 2017-12-13 | 3.40% | |||
| LLY | $82.38 | OTM | LLY 11/03 2017 $82.50 Call | $0.62 | $0.62 | 0.75% | 68.68% | **** | 2018-01-31 | 2017-11-10 | 2.49% | |||
| XLV | $81.04 | ITM | XLV 11/03 2017 $81.00 Call | $0.61 | $0.58 | 0.71% | 64.75% | **** | -- | 2017-12-16 | ||||
| MDT | $80.31 | ITM | MDT 11/03 2017 $80.00 Call | $0.86 | $0.56 | 0.69% | 63.06% | **** | 2017-11-28 | 2017-12-21 | 2.17% | |||
| JNJ | $139.52 | ITM | JNJ 11/03 2017 $139.00 Call | $1.45 | $0.93 | 0.67% | 60.82% | **** | 2018-01-23 | 2017-11-27 | 2.31% | |||
| PM | $105.07 | ITM | PM 11/03 2017 $105.00 Call | $0.70 | $0.63 | 0.60% | 54.71% | **** | 2017-10-19 | 2017-12-20 | 3.97% | |||
| MMM | $230.79 | ITM | MMM 11/03 2017 $230.00 Call | $2.10 | $1.31 | 0.57% | 51.79% | **** | 2017-10-24 | 2017-11-16 | 1.98% | |||
| WMT | $87.24 | OTM | WMT 11/03 2017 $87.50 Call | $0.44 | $0.44 | 0.50% | 46.03% | **** | 2017-11-16 | 2017-12-07 | 2.32% | |||
| XOM | $83.47 | OTM | XOM 11/03 2017 $83.50 Call | $0.42 | $0.42 | 0.50% | 45.92% | **** | 2017-10-27 | 2017-11-08 | 3.62% | |||
| XLY | $91.96 | OTM | XLY 11/03 2017 $92.00 Call | $0.41 | $0.41 | 0.45% | 40.68% | **** | -- | 2017-12-16 | ||||
| ABT | $54.22 | ITM | ABT 11/03 2017 $54.00 Call | $0.56 | $0.34 | 0.63% | 57.22% | 2017-10-18 | 2017-10-12 | 1.94% | ||||
| VZ | $47.82 | OTM | VZ 11/03 2017 $48.00 Call | $0.26 | $0.26 | 0.54% | 49.61% | 2018-01-23 | 2017-10-05 | 4.83% | ||||
| XLU | $55.04 | ITM | XLU 11/03 2017 $55.00 Call | $0.33 | $0.29 | 0.53% | 48.08% | -- | 2017-12-16 | 2.91% | ||||
| POT | $19.48 | OTM | POT 11/03 2017 $19.50 Call | $0.10 | $0.10 | 0.51% | 46.84% | -- | 2017-10-07 | 2.07% | ||||
| CSCO | $34.09 | ITM | CSCO 11/03 2017 $34.00 Call | $0.26 | $0.17 | 0.50% | 45.50% | 2017-11-15 | 2017-10-03 | 3.23% | ||||
| LOW | $79.92 | OTM | LOW 11/03 2017 $80.00 Call | $0.39 | $0.39 | 0.49% | 44.53% | 2017-11-21 | 2017-10-24 | 1.84% | ||||
| XLF | $26.63 | ITM | XLF 11/03 2017 $26.50 Call | $0.26 | $0.13 | 0.48% | 43.51% | -- | 2017-12-16 | |||||
| PG | $86.30 | OTM | PG 11/03 2017 $86.50 Call | $0.38 | $0.38 | 0.44% | 40.18% | 2017-10-20 | 2017-10-19 | 3.13% | ||||
| MO | $64.66 | ITM | MO 11/03 2017 $64.50 Call | $0.43 | $0.28 | 0.43% | 38.81% | 2017-10-26 | 2017-12-20 | 3.81% | ||||
| XLB | $58.99 | OTM | XLB 11/03 2017 $59.00 Call | $0.20 | $0.20 | 0.34% | 30.94% | -- | 2017-12-16 | 1.61% |
Monday, October 23, 2017
CC-List candidates
This is how things look this morning:
I already have positions in NUE, PM, WFC, and MDT, so I won't be looking at those.
| Ticker | Price | I/O | Description of Best Call | Bid | Extr | ROI | aROI | Flag | Next Earn | Flag | Ex-Div | Flag | DPS | Yield |
| LOW | $80.96 | OTM | LOW 10/27 2017 $81.00 Call | $0.43 | $0.43 | 0.53% | 38.77% | *** | 2017-11-21 | 2017-10-24 | *** | $1.46 | 1.82% | |
| NUE | $60.49 | OTM | NUE 10/27 2017 $60.50 Call | $0.55 | $0.55 | 0.91% | 66.37% | *** | 2017-10-19 | 2017-09-28 | $1.51 | 2.51% | ||
| TGT | $63.10 | ITM | TGT 10/27 2017 $63.00 Call | $0.59 | $0.49 | 0.78% | 56.69% | *** | 2017-11-15 | 2017-11-14 | $2.40 | 3.89% | ||
| ABT | $56.50 | OTM | ABT 10/27 2017 $56.50 Call | $0.41 | $0.41 | 0.73% | 52.97% | *** | 2017-10-18 | 2017-10-12 | $1.06 | 1.87% | ||
| PM | $110.13 | ITM | PM 10/27 2017 $110.00 Call | $0.83 | $0.70 | 0.64% | 46.40% | *** | 2017-10-19 | 2017-12-20 | $4.16 | 3.80% | ||
| WFC | $54.88 | OTM | WFC 10/27 2017 $55.00 Call | $0.33 | $0.33 | 0.60% | 43.90% | *** | 2018-01-12 | 2017-11-02 | $1.52 | 2.77% | ||
| MDT | $78.68 | ITM | MDT 10/27 2017 $78.50 Call | $0.61 | $0.43 | 0.55% | 39.90% | *** | 2017-11-28 | 2017-12-21 | $1.75 | 2.23% | ||
| PEP | $111.99 | OTM | PEP 10/27 2017 $112.00 Call | $0.57 | $0.57 | 0.51% | 37.16% | *** | 2017-10-04 | 2017-11-30 | $3.06 | 2.74% | ||
| JNJ | $144.08 | ITM | JNJ 10/27 2017 $144.00 Call | $0.79 | $0.71 | 0.49% | 35.97% | *** | 2018-01-23 | 2017-11-18 | $3.24 | 2.28% |
I already have positions in NUE, PM, WFC, and MDT, so I won't be looking at those.
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