Thursday, January 19, 2012

IWM -- Comment

I'm considering buying back the IWM 3/17 2012 $76.00 Call tomorrow, 2 months early.

I sold it for $3.49, when IWM was $75.95, so all of that was extrinsic value.

Now that IWM is trading at $78.20, the call is selling for $4.44, which means it only has an extrinsic value for $2.24.

So, as I see it:

$0.05 = Captial gain (i.e. stock moving from $75.95 to $76 strike price)
$1.25 = Change in extrinsic price (i.e. earned time decay)
$0.95 = Actual change in call price
------- --------------------------------------------------------------------
$2.25 = Actual change in stock price

With 8 weeks until the option expires, I think I can earn a lot more time decay selling weeklies than the $2.24 of extrinsic value that remains on the option. For example, next week's $78 call currently has $0.86 of extrinsic value. It also means I earned about $0.18 per day of time decay already, with under $0.04 per day of time decay remaining.


But it also has me wondering -- why such a huge change in extrinsic value over a single week on an option that was 9 weeks away from expiring? Is this a regularly occurring phenomenon that can be taken advantage of? How does one recognize or predict when such a shift might happen?
 

No comments:

Post a Comment