Thursday, March 16, 2017

How I choose positions to take

Since I've had a few questions by email lately, I thought I'd step through my process on the next week's choices.

First, I run my "upcoming dividends" workbook. It is ordered by my estimated ex-dividend dates, which I try to confirm:

TickerOptionsSourceEstimated
Ex-dividend date
WeekYieldEx-dividend dateWarning
IRETM1XDividend Championxxxx-03-1614.84%2017-03-16
WEYSNDividend Championxxxx-03-1613.37%2017-03-16
CINFM1XDividend Championxxxx-03-2012.70%2017-03-20
PMWfreebelvinxxxx-03-2113.76%2017-03-21
SPLSWfreebelvinxxxx-03-2215.54%2017-03-22
PORM1Xfreebelvinxxxx-03-2322.90%2017-03-23
NFGM2Dividend Championxxxx-03-2922.70%2017-03-29
DOWWfreebelvinxxxx-03-2922.89%2017-03-29
MDTWDividend Championxxxx-03-2212.08%2017-03-22
PNYM1XDividend Championxxxx-03-2322.27%2016-09-21<==
NUEWDividend Championxxxx-03-2922.49%2017-03-29
ITWM1Dividend Championxxxx-03-2921.95%2017-03-29
SYKM1PLAxxxx-03-2921.29%2017-03-29
BENM2Dividend Championxxxx-03-2921.89%2017-03-29
CBM3Dividend Championxxxx-03-2922.01%2017-03-29

Next, I run those over 2.5% yield through by "CC List" workbook, to check for quick candidates:

TickerLast PriceStrikeRIURIED/PaROICall DescriptionBid Price
PM$112.42ITM0.3%0.3%0.7%13.3%PM 3/24 2017 $112.00 Call$0.79
SPLS$8.78----2.5%0.0%--SPLS 3/24 2017 $9.00 Call--
POR$45.03----------
--
NFG$60.91----------
--
DOW$64.44OTM0.8%0.9%0.8%32.7%DOW 3/24 2017 $64.50 Call$0.52

I used a 3/24 expiration date for comparison. That workbook checks the first ITM and first OTM  call, to see what the best aROI would be. In this case, it looks like DOW is the only one to look at in more detail. So I run it through the "CC Roll" workbook, to see which calls are the best over many expiration dates and many strike prices. The top aROI results from that workbook:

ActionTicker SymbolPivotPriceExtrinsic
Ex-Div?Earn?
Buy or ownedDOW$0.00$64.44--
2017-03-292017-04-27
Buy to closeNone------


Data SourceBarchart













ActionTicker SymbolBid PriceExtrinsicProfitaROIDividendsEarn Rpt
Sell to openDOW 3/17 2017 $64.50 Call$0.22$0.22$0.2262.3%----
Sell to openDOW 3/24 2017 $64.50 Call$0.52$0.52$0.5232.7%----
Sell to openDOW 3/31 2017 $64.50 Call$0.66$0.66$0.6623.4%$0.46--
Sell to openDOW 3/24 2017 $64.00 Call$0.76$0.32$0.3220.1%----
Sell to openDOW 3/24 2017 $65.00 Call$0.31$0.31$0.3119.5%----
Sell to openDOW 4/7 2017 $64.50 Call$0.76$0.76$0.7618.7%$0.46--
Sell to openDOW 3/31 2017 $64.00 Call$0.95$0.51$0.5118.1%$0.46--

So it looks like the two best aROI would be with expiration dates prior to the ex-dividend date, and both are above the 30% aROI filter I try to use. However, the $0.22 bid price is a bit low for me to trade, since the commission would be too large an amount. I'll check tomorrow on the 3/24 expiration. If it is exercised at expiration, I may be able to write another for the ex-dividend week.

I may run PM through the "CC Roll" workbook tomorrow, seeing if any of the 3/24 expiration date strike prices look any better. Because it pays a $1.04 dividend, which can change the outcome a bit -- it can boost the aROI if the call gets exercised early.

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