Monday, August 7, 2017

LLY, WMT, XOM -- New Dividend Plays

LLY goes ex-dividend on 8/11 for $0.52:

Date Description AmountROIaROIProfit
2017-08-07Buy LLY @ $81.85-$81.85
2017-08-07Sell LLY 8/11 2017 $82.00 Call @ $0.37$0.37
2017-08-11If assigned at expiration$82.000.64%57.97%$0.52
2017-08-07Current value$81.840.44%161.83%$0.36
2017-08-07Buy and Hold$81.84-0.01%---$0.01

WMT goes ex-dividend on 8/9 for $0.51:

Date Description AmountROIaROIProfit
2017-08-07Buy WMT @ $81.17-$81.17
2017-08-07Sell WMT 8/18 2017 $81.00 Call @ $1.25$1.25
2017-08-18If assigned at expiration$81.001.34%44.32%$1.08
2017-08-07Current value$81.001.34%487.47%$1.08
2017-08-07Buy and Hold$81.200.04%--$0.03

XOM goes ex-dividend on 8/10 for $0.77:

Date Description AmountROIaROIProfit
2017-08-07Buy XOM @ $79.95-$79.95
2017-08-07Sell XOM 8/11 2017 $80.00 Call @ $0.30$0.30
2017-08-11If assigned at expiration$80.000.44%40.29%$0.35
2017-08-07Current value$80.000.44%161.16%$0.35
2017-08-07Buy and Hold$80.010.08%--$0.06
 

4 comments:

  1. All three are $80 stocks. is this coincidence?

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  2. I thought that strange as I went through them this morning as well.

    I was doing some testing for options data retrieval last night and was using MMM and SPY, which are both coincidentally in the $200's.

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  3. As we know, the stock price on average declines by the ex-div $ amount upon the market open on the ex-div date. Do you know if there has been any research regarding what direction stock prices tend to go (i.e. bounce back up, stay neutral, or continue to decline) in the first few days immediately after the ex-div date? If no research on this, what is your thought process on establishing these dividend capture types of trades?

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  4. WBJ would buy stocks a few weeks prior to the ex-dividend date and then sell the stock after a 3% gain would be made (including paid dividends). I had a lot of discussions with the creator of the method and got banned from his Yahoo group. My gripe was that he claim gains of 3% per month, but that's because everything he sold in that month had a 3% gain, but the holdings sold that month could have been held 3 days or 18 months. He never had a loss (in a sold position). However, when I reviewed hundreds of his documented trades, from 2008 to 2012, I ended up with an XIRR() of about 36%. My own real-life test, with only 12 positions, over 2011 and 2012, was at about 41%. But I could never establish clear buy criteria. But it doesn't involve options, just strong dividend stocks. Also, look up "ex-dividend day stock price anomaly" on Google.

    ReplyDelete