Tuesday, August 2, 2016

Thoughts on COP

On another board, someone asked me how I was handling the big drop in COP. My response: 



COP did move against me. For now, I'll just sit and collect the 3%+ dividend. It's more than my cash would collect. But one point I was making is that I'm ahead of B&H now too, -5.4% vs -8.4%. But I will continue to review the potential calls. For example, possibilities I'm looking at right now:


Contract NameLast PriceBidAskVolumeOpen InterestImplied VolatilityEquityExpiryDays$/DayaROIEx-Div?Earn?
COP160826C00042500$0.60$0.66$0.695460.417$39.482016-08-2624$0.02926.6%----
COP160902C00042000$0.96$1.00$1.05170.4233$39.482016-09-0231$0.03431.3%----
COP161118C00041000$1.91$2.13$2.1792340.3254$39.482016-11-18108$0.02018.6%$0.25XXX
COP170120C00040000$3.30$3.35$3.408753200.3364$39.482017-01-20171$0.02018.4%----


Notice that in each case, the strike price plus the bid would be over the original $42.79 purchase price of the stock. However, the further down I go in price, the further out I need to lock myself in. Note that aROI does NOT include dividends.

On the one hand, the $40 strike looks good, if there's more downside left. Otherwise, I'd look to the $42 one, since it has the max aROI of the four (as standalone transactions) and only goes out another month.

Summaries of the position based on the $40 call or the $42 call:


Date Description AmountROIaROIProfit
2016-09-02If assigned at expiration$42.002.90%21.59%$1.24
2016-08-02Current Price @ $39.49$39.49-2.97%-60.18%-$1.27






2017-01-20If assigned at expiration$40.003.72%7.18%$1.59
2016-08-02Current Price @ $39.49$39.492.52%51.18%$1.08

But four months in between. I might be better off being able to write more calls if I go with $42 now. And I certainly wouldn't be upset if the $42 gets assigned a month from now. :)
 

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