Tuesday, September 12, 2017

A comparison of several CSP vs CC, Update

Now that it's two days prior to them going ex-dividend, I looked at the same stocks again:

Ticker:MRKMOKOMMM
Expiry/Ex-Div:09/1509/1409/1509/1409/1509/1409/1508/23
Price/Div:$65.44$0.47$62.23$0.66$46.73$0.37$209.58$1.18
StrikePE-CEStrikePE-CEStrikePE-CEStrikePE-CE
$63.50$0.04$60.50--$45.00--$200.00--
$64.00--$61.00$0.11$45.50--$202.50--
$64.50--$61.50$0.25$46.00--$205.00--
$65.00$0.35$62.00$0.44$46.50$0.21$207.50$0.11
$65.50$0.42$62.50$0.55$47.00$0.35$210.00$0.08
$66.00$0.49$63.00$0.56$47.50--$212.50$0.06
$66.50--$63.50--$48.00--$215.00--
$67.00--$64.00--$48.50--$220.00--

Also, I ran the "CC-Roll" worksheet on MO:

ActionTicker SymbolPivotPriceExtrinsicEx-Div?Earn?
Buy or ownedMO$0.00$62.20--2017-09-142017-10-26
ActionTicker SymbolBid PriceExtrinsicProfitaROIDividendsEarn Rpt
Sell to openMO 9/15 2017 $62.00 Call$0.31$0.11$0.1121.5%$0.66--
Sell to openMO 9/15 2017 $62.50 Call$0.08$0.08$0.0815.6%$0.66--

The aROI is based on the expiration date of the call, so if it is exercised early, that would about triple, as the holding period goes from just over 1 day to just over 3 days. Without an early exercise, you'd own a $61.54 ($62.20 - $0.66) value stock for $61.23 ($62.20-$0.31-$0.66).

The put's bid price is $0.55 (i.e. $0.44 higher than the call). Some of that becomes intrinsic value when the dividend is paid, since it is attempting to compensate for the stock price dropping by the dividend amount. However, there's virtually no chance of it being exercised early, so you'd end up owning a $61.54 value stock for $61.45 ($62.00 - $0.55).

So, assuming no market change in price other than the dividend, possible results are $0.11 return free and clear in 1 day, or either $0.31 (the intrinsic value of the call) or $0.09 paper profit after 3 days.

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